Lance Thrailkill: Why the Next Housing Boom Will Be Built Faster, Smarter, and More Local

The Productivity Stall Driving Housing Costs

Every housing boom rests on familiar forces such as population growth, lower interest rates and strong economies. For decades, that has translated into what many describe as a prime market, where property values climb and developers struggle to keep up. The problem is that this dynamic has broken the affordability equation.

Productivity per construction worker has stayed flat for roughly thirty years, even as a skilled labor shortage has deepened. Builders have tried to respond the old fashioned way by putting more people on the problem. “There are not more people available,” he says, and when companies lean on less skilled labor and cheaper materials, the outcome is predictable. Buyers end up paying more for homes that are often built to a lower standard, because demand continues to keep prices high.

The tools on-site reflect the same slowdown in innovation. Over nearly a century of modern homebuilding, the nail gun stands out as one of the most disruptive productivity gains. If the next boom is going to deliver both volume and quality, the underlying model of how homes are produced has to be rewritten.

Automation and 3D Printing Redefining Homebuilding

Thrailkill’s answer is to apply the principles of advanced manufacturing directly to residential construction. In manufacturing, throughput and consistency are non-negotiable. Automation is not simply a way to reduce labor costs, it is a way to design systems that produce more, faster and with fewer mistakes. Housing, he argues, now needs that same mindset. 3D printing of homes sits at the center of his thesis. With large format concrete printers, a single machine can automate several trades that traditionally require separate crews and schedules. “You are automating framing, sheetrock, tape, bed and texture, masonry,” he says. Even aspects of painting can be built into the process by impregnating color into the mix. Entire wall systems can be completed in days instead of months.

Automation delivers two critical advantages. First, it increases throughput so that supply can start to catch up with demand. Second, it improves consistency in the way manufacturers have long relied on. “The more you automate, the more consistent the product is,” Thrailkill says, and over time that consistency helps raise overall quality.

There is also a structural upgrade that often gets lost in price debates. A 3D printed home is typically built as a concrete or cementitious shell rather than a wood frame, making it more resistant to fire, tornadoes, mold and termites. Buyers are not just adopting a novel technique. They are choosing a more durable product that can better withstand time and climate, similar to the masonry homes across Europe that have endured for centuries.

Localized Production and Micro Factories Reshaping Supply Chains

Speed and intelligence are only part of the story. To truly reset affordability, the next housing boom also has to be local. Thrailkill points to a growing range of approaches that treat homes more like manufactured products. Modular homes, pre manufactured homes and prefab assemblies all aim to industrialize parts of the build. Historically, many of these systems have been centralized. Wall panels or full units are produced in distant plants and then moved across the country, which adds logistics cost, delays and risk.

Newer models look to turn that model inside out. Thrailkill highlights companies such as CUBY, an early stage company developing “pop up” micro factories that can be deployed directly next to new developments. These temporary facilities fabricate wall systems, roof structures and other assemblies on-site. Instead of pushing finished modules thousands of miles, the manufacturing line itself moves closer to the neighborhood.

“Essentially, they are trying to shorten the supply lines so there are fewer failure points,” he says. Local materials, local fabrication, local staging and faster replacement all follow from that logic. These micro factories also create local jobs and training programs, turning each project into the seed of a small ecosystem.

Code Innovation Paving the Way for Adoption

If the “what” of the next boom is factory grade, local production of homes, the “how” is not only technological. It is also regulatory. Builders and developers that Thrailkill meets are often surprisingly open minded about new methods, with many eager to experiment with 3D printing and other automated approaches. Their constraints, however, are in the building departments; most city codes were written for traditional methods, and working around them requires extensive one off approvals under “other means and methods” provisions. Companies like ICON have proven it is possible to navigate that process in dozens of cities, but the level of hand-holding required can be significant.

This is where the emerging ICC 1150 standard for 3D automated construction technology becomes a potential turning point. An International Code Council committee has been working on ICC 1150 for roughly eighteen months, crafting a dedicated standard for 3D printed concrete walls. Once the final draft is complete and adopted into model codes, municipalities will have a clear roadmap for what is acceptable from the planning stage through inspection of printed wall systems.

Thrailkill expects that cities adopting ICC 1150 into their building codes could be the biggest single unlock for 3D printed housing. It would reduce regulatory ambiguity, shorten approval timelines and make it far easier for builders and developers to partner with 3D printing companies without navigating bespoke compliance paths in every jurisdiction. It also reduces the number of inspections required, which city inspectors will love once it is adopted.  Industry expectations point to broad adoption through the 2027 code cycle, which could align regulation with the pace of innovation in the field.

A Blueprint for Stronger, Smarter Communities

For Thrailkill, the ultimate question is not whether 3D printing or pop up factories are impressive. It is whether they can translate into better housing outcomes for families and communities. He sees a familiar pattern in the way new technologies spread, drawing a parallel to electric vehicles. Early resistance often gives way once performance, economics and public awareness align. In housing, he believes that alignment will begin in build to rent communities, where renters are more willing to embrace modern designs and new construction methods. From there, exposure through rentals and short stays can make printed homes feel less abstract and more like a sensible option for a long term purchase.

As design tools improve, that transition becomes easier. PRINT3D Technologies is developing a rotary print head that produces a square bead resembling brick, allowing traditional architectural styles that most buyers still prefer. Combined with the resilience of concrete structures and the efficiency of automated production, the next housing boom will look very different from the last one. Instead of simply driving prices higher, it can add real supply, strengthen local economies and deliver homes that are stronger, smarter and built closer to the people who need them.

Connect with LanceThrailkill on LinkedIn or visit his website to learn more.

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